Possible Futures

First off, consider this post an exercise in futurism. In that, I don’t think any of this would ever really happen. Mostly because of how publishing works these days, how the industry stays afloat, etc. So, don’t consider this a prescription of what will happen, but consider this a messy, interesting series of what if’s, what could’s and what might’s.

We’ve all heard about the woes and worries of the book publishing world. It sucks. Does it suck worse than the rest of the world in this economy? Probably not. So grain of salt taken, etc. prescribed, etc. But of course, this whole “death of print” thing has my brain wheels turning. If publishing had to completely reinvent the way it distributes and produces its content, how would it do it?

Well, there are two main theories that I have. The first is that publishing will split between the electronic mode and the printed mode, with printed books being collector’s items. Books will be cherish-able objects, printed on high quality archival paper, beautiful leather covers, and illustrated with haunting, vibrant pictures. For those of you who don’t want the actual physical book, you’ll be able to read it on your ereader or computer of choice, keeping a temporary copy.* I like this future, because I like books as being works of art. Book stores, when they exist, are a combination of books-as-art museum for spectators, and book-as-download, allowing people to buy copies in store for a fraction of the price (or read reviews from their handset, just by scanning the bar code, or the first few pages, whatever).

Concept 2 is books as disposable, instant medium. Bookstores will be empty, containing only one copy of each book for a person to peruse (or if ereaders are a part of this, then you can scan, download, view and decide). If you wish to buy a book, you would take a ticket to the counter, (or wirelessly send it, or order it via the internet, or text it from your cellphone) and they would begin the printing process using POD (print on demand). You have a cup of joe, flip through an ebook version you got gratis with your print version, and in a short amount of time your book is finished and you can pick it up at the counter.

The bonuses to this future is that there will be no returns, no stock to warehouse or ship, and you can save a ton of money in that vision. The downside is that books will be slightly more costly and you will have to wait to receive it (no instant gratification).

Of course, neither of these futures are probable. They are possible (like all speculative futures are), but they aren’t even close to being likely. Too many publishing houses make too much money from stocking best sellers in Wal-Mart and in Grocery Stores and Supermarkets for them to give up the mass printing, cheap as dirt paperback.

And, both of these scenarios assume that books will then cost more than they do now (the first future, with its archival quality book as art would be the most expensive), which we all know is not very likely in this economic environment. People don’t want to spend more, they want to spend less.

Still, it’s fun playing pretend, isn’t it?

*all electronic copies of everything are only temporary. It’s far easier to delete a text file than it is to sell a book. There is no nostalgia value for one, and there is no repercussions for another. In the age of electronic media, all media is infinitely available therefore no media is infinitely available.